挪威冰盖:哭泣的人脸

贴近自然,关心环境

版主: yufanyufanyufan

卜布
帖子: 256
注册时间: 31-08-09 周一 9:20 pm
来自: 处处无家处处家

BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX DEGREES OF WARMING

Although warming on this scale lies within the IPCC's officially endorsed range of 21st-century possibilities, climate models have little to say about what Lynas, echoing Dante, describes as "the Sixth Circle of Hell". To see the most recent climatic lookalike, we have to turn the geological clock back between 144m and 65m years, to the Cretaceous, which ended with the extinction of the dinosaurs. There was an even closer fit at the end of the Permian, 251m years ago, when global temperatures rose by - yes - six degrees, and 95% of species were wiped out.

"That episode," says Lynas, "was the worst ever endured by life on Earth, the closest the planet has come to ending up a dead and desolate rock in space." On land, the only winners were fungi that flourished on dying trees and shrubs. At sea there were only losers. "Warm water is a killer. Less oxygen can dissolve, so conditions become stagnant and anoxic. Oxygen-breathing water-dwellers - all the higher forms of life from plankton to sharks - face suffocation. Warm water also expands, and sea levels rose by 20 metres." The resulting "super-hurricanes" hitting the coasts would have "triggered flash floods that no living thing could have survived".

There are aspects of the so-called "end-Permian extinction" that are unlikely to recur - most importantly, the vast volcanic eruption in Siberia that spread magma hundreds of metres thick over an area bigger than western Europe and shot billions of tonnes of CO² into the atmosphere. That is small comfort, however, for beneath the oceans, another monster stirred - the same that would bring a devastating end to the Palaeocene nearly 200m years later, and that still lies in wait today. Methane hydrate.

Lynas describes what happens when warming water releases pent-up gas from the sea bed. "First, a small disturbance drives a gas-saturated parcel of water upwards. As it rises, bubbles begin to appear, as dissolved gas fizzles out with reducing pressure - just as a bottle of lemonade overflows if the top is taken off too quickly. These bubbles make the parcel of water still more buoyant, accelerating its rise through the water. As it surges upwards, reaching explosive force, it drags surrounding water ?up with it. At the surface, water is shot hundreds of metres into the air as the released gas blasts into the atmosphere. Shockwaves propagate outwards in all directions, triggering more eruptions nearby."

The eruption is more than just another positive feedback in the quickening process of global warming. Unlike CO², methane is flammable. "Even in air-methane concentrations as low as 5%," says Lynas, "the mixture could ignite from lightning or some other spark and send fireballs tearing across the sky." The effect would be much like that of the fuel-air explosives used by the US and Russian armies - so-called "vacuum bombs" that ignite fuel droplets above a target. According to the CIA, "Those near the ignition point are obliterated. Those at the fringes are likely to suffer many internal injuries, including burst eardrums, severe concussion, ruptured lungs and internal organs, and possibly blindness." Such tactical weapons, however, are squibs when set against methane-air clouds from oceanic eruptions. Scientists calculate that they could "destroy terrestrial life almost entirely" (251m years ago, only one large land animal, the pig-like lystrosaurus, survived). It has been estimated that a large eruption in future could release energy equivalent to 108 megatonnes of TNT - 100,000 times more than the world's entire stockpile of nuclear weapons. Not even Lynas, for all his scientific propriety, can avoid the Hollywood ending. "It is not too difficult to imagine the ultimate nightmare, with oceanic methane eruptions near large population centres wiping out billions of people - perhaps in days. Imagine a 'fuel-air explosive' fireball racing towards a city - London, say, or Tokyo - the blast wave spreading out from the explosive centre with the speed and force of an atomic bomb. Buildings are flattened, people are incinerated where they stand, or left blind and deaf by the force of the explosion. Mix Hiroshima with post-Katrina New Orleans to get some idea of what such a catastrophe might look like: burnt survivors battling over food, wandering far and wide from empty cities."

Then would come hydrogen sulphide from the stagnant oceans. "It would be a silent killer: imagine the scene at Bhopal following the Union Carbide gas release in 1984, replayed first at coastal settlements, then continental interiors across the world. At the same time, as the ozone layer came under assault, we would feel the sun's rays burning into our skin, and the first cell mutations would be triggering outbreaks of cancer among anyone who survived. Dante's hell was a place of judgment, where humanity was for ever punished for its sins. With all the remaining forests burning, and the corpses of people, livestock and wildlife piling up in every continent, the six-degree world would be a harsh penalty indeed for the mundane crime of burning fossil energy."
卜布
帖子: 256
注册时间: 31-08-09 周一 9:20 pm
来自: 处处无家处处家

BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX DEGREES OF WARMING

Although warming on this scale lies within the IPCC's officially endorsed range of 21st-century possibilities, climate models have little to say about what Lynas, echoing Dante, describes as "the Sixth Circle of Hell". To see the most recent climatic lookalike, we have to turn the geological clock back between 144m and 65m years, to the Cretaceous, which ended with the extinction of the dinosaurs. There was an even closer fit at the end of the Permian, 251m years ago, when global temperatures rose by - yes - six degrees, and 95% of species were wiped out.

"That episode," says Lynas, "was the worst ever endured by life on Earth, the closest the planet has come to ending up a dead and desolate rock in space." On land, the only winners were fungi that flourished on dying trees and shrubs. At sea there were only losers. "Warm water is a killer. Less oxygen can dissolve, so conditions become stagnant and anoxic. Oxygen-breathing water-dwellers - all the higher forms of life from plankton to sharks - face suffocation. Warm water also expands, and sea levels rose by 20 metres." The resulting "super-hurricanes" hitting the coasts would have "triggered flash floods that no living thing could have survived".

There are aspects of the so-called "end-Permian extinction" that are unlikely to recur - most importantly, the vast volcanic eruption in Siberia that spread magma hundreds of metres thick over an area bigger than western Europe and shot billions of tonnes of CO² into the atmosphere. That is small comfort, however, for beneath the oceans, another monster stirred - the same that would bring a devastating end to the Palaeocene nearly 200m years later, and that still lies in wait today. Methane hydrate.

Lynas describes what happens when warming water releases pent-up gas from the sea bed. "First, a small disturbance drives a gas-saturated parcel of water upwards. As it rises, bubbles begin to appear, as dissolved gas fizzles out with reducing pressure - just as a bottle of lemonade overflows if the top is taken off too quickly. These bubbles make the parcel of water still more buoyant, accelerating its rise through the water. As it surges upwards, reaching explosive force, it drags surrounding water ?up with it. At the surface, water is shot hundreds of metres into the air as the released gas blasts into the atmosphere. Shockwaves propagate outwards in all directions, triggering more eruptions nearby."

The eruption is more than just another positive feedback in the quickening process of global warming. Unlike CO², methane is flammable. "Even in air-methane concentrations as low as 5%," says Lynas, "the mixture could ignite from lightning or some other spark and send fireballs tearing across the sky." The effect would be much like that of the fuel-air explosives used by the US and Russian armies - so-called "vacuum bombs" that ignite fuel droplets above a target. According to the CIA, "Those near the ignition point are obliterated. Those at the fringes are likely to suffer many internal injuries, including burst eardrums, severe concussion, ruptured lungs and internal organs, and possibly blindness." Such tactical weapons, however, are squibs when set against methane-air clouds from oceanic eruptions. Scientists calculate that they could "destroy terrestrial life almost entirely" (251m years ago, only one large land animal, the pig-like lystrosaurus, survived). It has been estimated that a large eruption in future could release energy equivalent to 108 megatonnes of TNT - 100,000 times more than the world's entire stockpile of nuclear weapons. Not even Lynas, for all his scientific propriety, can avoid the Hollywood ending. "It is not too difficult to imagine the ultimate nightmare, with oceanic methane eruptions near large population centres wiping out billions of people - perhaps in days. Imagine a 'fuel-air explosive' fireball racing towards a city - London, say, or Tokyo - the blast wave spreading out from the explosive centre with the speed and force of an atomic bomb. Buildings are flattened, people are incinerated where they stand, or left blind and deaf by the force of the explosion. Mix Hiroshima with post-Katrina New Orleans to get some idea of what such a catastrophe might look like: burnt survivors battling over food, wandering far and wide from empty cities."

Then would come hydrogen sulphide from the stagnant oceans. "It would be a silent killer: imagine the scene at Bhopal following the Union Carbide gas release in 1984, replayed first at coastal settlements, then continental interiors across the world. At the same time, as the ozone layer came under assault, we would feel the sun's rays burning into our skin, and the first cell mutations would be triggering outbreaks of cancer among anyone who survived. Dante's hell was a place of judgment, where humanity was for ever punished for its sins.

With all the remaining forests burning, and the corpses of people, livestock and wildlife piling up in every continent, the six-degree world would be a harsh penalty indeed for the mundane crime of burning fossil energy."
卜布
帖子: 256
注册时间: 31-08-09 周一 9:20 pm
来自: 处处无家处处家

RED ALERT

If global warming continues at the current rate, we could be facing extinction. So what exactly is going to happen as the Earth heats up? Here is a degree-by-degree guide

1c Increase
Ice-free sea absorbs ?more heat and accelerates global warming; fresh water lost from a third of the world's surface; low-lying coastlines flooded .

2c Increase
Europeans dying of heatstroke; forests ravaged by fire; stressed plants beginning to emit carbon rather than absorbing it; a third of all species face extinction .

3c Increase
Carbon release from vegetation and soils ?speeds global warming; death of the Amazon rainforest; super-hurricanes hit coastal cities; starvation in Africa .

4c Increase
Runaway thaw of permafrost makes global warming unstoppable; much of Britain made uninhabitable by severe flooding; Mediterranean region abandoned .

5c Increase
Methane from ocean floor accelerates global warming; ice gone from both poles; humans migrate in search of food and try vainly to live like animals off the land.

6c Increase
Life on Earth ends with apocalyptic storms, flash floods, hydrogen sulphide gas and methane fireballs racing across the globe with the power of atomic bombs; only fungi survive.

Chance of avoiding six degrees of global warming: zero if the rise passes five degrees, by which time all feedbacks will be running out of control .
卜布
帖子: 256
注册时间: 31-08-09 周一 9:20 pm
来自: 处处无家处处家

《给地球公民的一封公开信》

http://xlczweina.blog.163.com/blog/stat ... 112325572/


全球暖化正在演化成为人类历史上的一场巨大危机,人类正面临着集体灭绝的危险,难道还有什么比这更极待解决么。地球上具有最高聪明度的人类,如果对此还是漠视不顾,我们将成为贻害子孙的罪魁祸首。

在我们享受物质文明带给我们舒适生活的背后,隐藏着巨大的危机。地球的南北极冰川正在以令人震惊的速度消失。这消失的不仅仅是美丽的冰川,而是我们赖以生存的生态环境。危机的根源就是全球暖化。

北极冰层可以反射80%的太阳能,来平衡海水的温度。如果北极冰层融化,海水就会因吸收热量而快速升温,从而打破平衡,届时全球暖化将进入爆发式和不可逆转的阶段。暖化将进一步导致有毒气体从海底排出,海底蕴含的毒气量足以毒死地球上的每一个人。(据英国《独立报》9月23日报道,科学家们首次发现,北极地区海床底部数百万吨的甲烷正缓慢地释放到大气中,要知道甲烷这种气体蕴藏的能量是二氧化碳所含能量的二十倍,它的大量涌入大气将给地球安全带来严重威胁)

地球气温每升高一度,就会引起生物和气候的重大变化,气温升高6度,人类就会灭绝。(参见《六度的变化:一个越来越热星球的未来》一书)6度的升温,留给我们的究竟还有多少时间呢?

美国Wieslaw Maslowski教授团队,美国太空总署(NASA)、海洋资源研究院和波兰科学院都预测,北极冰原将于2012年前全部融化(原来的预测是2050年)。

英国科学家宣称:人类只剩7年时间来拯救地球和人类自己。如果温室气体在这7年中无法得到控制,那么地球将在2015年进入不可逆转的恶性循环中,各种灾祸将席卷地球,使人类遭遇种种前所未遇的“末日劫难”。
联合国环境规划署报告(Global Environmental Outlook report)中警告:气候变迁的影响正以加快的速率发生,某些地区很快将面临无法挽回的绝境。例如供应印度、中国与非洲地区数百万人水源的喜马拉雅山(Himalayan)冰河,就是可能即将干涸的例子。

气候升温、冰川融化等指标在2007年以后陡然加速,自然灾害也更加频繁。联合国环境规划署与瑞士苏黎世大学的世界冰川监测机构2008年9月1日在日内瓦联合发布报告指出,全球冰川的消融速度以十年为单位,在近二十年里呈几何级数的增长速度在加快融化,形势之严重令人触目惊心。
联合国报告指出2007年的十大自然灾害中有9件是因气候异常所造成的。2008年的统计,目前在全球范围内,自然灾害发生的频率比上世纪70年代高4倍。澳洲一名科学家发现,现时的地震活跃程度是二十年前的五倍,地震的破坏力正以惊人速度增长。种种迹象表明地球生态环境正在发生质变。
中国的国家地震局研究员、地球物理学家位梦华指出:知道人类为什么能舒舒服服地生活在环境中吗?这是南北两极的调节作用。设想下,地球上如果没南极和北极,可能热的地方能达到零上几百摄氏度,冷的地方达到零下几百摄氏度。位梦华说,全球82%的淡水储存在两极。如果全球气温按现在这样的速度变暖下去,再有50~100年的时间(可惜我们等不到这么久了),两极的冰盖就会化掉,海平面将上升60~70米,所有沿海的城市和村庄、地球上80%以上的耕地都将被淹没。

欧洲环保总署署长Jacqueline McGlade女士表示,如果北极的冰雪全部融化,地球的海平面就会上升7米,包括上海、广州等众多城市将会被淹没。
美国宇航局日前公布的几张卫星照片显示,北极冰盖周围约12.5万年历史的永久冻冰解冻,北极有史以来首次变成一座孤岛。(在去年的相关科学报告中,认为北极成为孤岛的时间应该为2030年左右,而今年它已变成了现实!!!)

看来地球的危机绝对不是言过其实、耸人听闻了。

在这历史的时刻,请人类和人类领导人冷静地思考。对地球的拯救是在量变时进行,还是在质变后进行?物质文明的发展,同失去这个文明,哪一个才是更要紧的?

如果我们唯一的家园毁坏了,人类社会所有值得骄傲的成就都将成为泡影,那么人类的文明和进步究竟有何意义呢?

现在很多世界的领导人,已经开始意识到问题的严重性,他们在很多场合积极探讨应对暖化的解决方案。美国前副总统戈尔先生就是其中有代表性的一员,因为他在推动解决全球暖化方面的杰出贡献,获得了2007年度诺贝尔和平奖。

在很多世界会议中,全球暖化都被列为重要的研讨内容。在博鳌亚洲论坛的数位嘉宾共同呼吁公众少吃肉食,以减少二氧化碳排放,为绿色地球作出贡献。这是解决全球暖化问题一个可喜的进展。

在最近召开的第63届联合国大会会议上,粮食危机和气候变化成为了本届大会的重要议题。联大主席在开幕词中说:有关报告显示,全球暖化已经是无可争议的事实,必须为此采取具体的解决方案,巴厘岛联合国气候变化大会通过的《行动计划》便是朝向这一目标迈出的重要一步。

联合国秘书长潘基文也再三发出警告:“世界正处于重大灾难的边缘”,“我不是吓唬你们,但我确实相信我们已处于临界点”,“时间不多了,希望你们做出明智的决定”。

感谢这些英明的领袖为解决全球暖化问题做出的不懈的努力。
也有一些国家,包括一些经济大国,在解决全球暖化问题上没有起到应有的作用,或出于本民族、本国家利益的考虑,不愿意做出牺牲或付出,这种狭隘的想法,有可能导致整个人类的劫难。

当今世界的暖化危机,好比是地球的后院起火,来势并不明显,往往容易被人忽略,而导致灭顶之灾。暖化是全人类必须共同应对的难题,人类是有远见的高级生命,应该能够抵御任何潜在的危险。人类的命运是联系在一起的,所谓“覆巢之下安有完卵?”。

现在的世界需要有胆识和智慧的世界领导人,需要心怀全球、真正为全人类有奉献精神的领导人,来引领人类走出困境。这条路虽然充满艰难,稍有不慎就会导致危险。但是人类从发明各种原始工具到征服太空,科技已经取得了长足的进步,只要人类真正的想解决暖化问题,就最终会找到解决的方法。

时间分分秒秒正在过去,南北极冰川正滴滴融化,任何的犹豫都会导致不可挽回的后果。

此刻世界领导人应该站在全人类的高度,放弃一切争端,以对人类的大爱和责任心,真正的为地球和我们的子孙后代着想(这同时也是为自己着想),立即共同着手解决全球暖化这一全人类最紧迫的危机,这样才不愧为人类的领袖。

结论: 很多科学家在向我们发出警告,暖化造成的灾难迹象越来越明显。人类如果不重视全球暖化现象和地球面临的危机,那么只有共同走向毁灭一条路。世界领导人肩负着人类的希望,对此负有重大的责任。
卜布
帖子: 256
注册时间: 31-08-09 周一 9:20 pm
来自: 处处无家处处家

有关全球暖化课题的电影与动画片,您看过了吗?
先有这本书……

图片


The Coming Global Superstorm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming ... Superstorm
卜布
帖子: 256
注册时间: 31-08-09 周一 9:20 pm
来自: 处处无家处处家

然后有这部电影……

图片


The Day After Tomorrow
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrow
卜布
帖子: 256
注册时间: 31-08-09 周一 9:20 pm
来自: 处处无家处处家

《冰河世纪2》动画片
图片


Ice Age: The Meltdown
http://www.iceagemovie.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Age:_The_Meltdown
头像
遙遠晨光
帖子: 193
注册时间: 22-03-07 周四 7:53 am
来自: 天涯的某處
联系:

很多時候我看到這種圖片的反應就是「這是PS(合成)的啦!」

但這次,我先不論它是不是合成,看到就有一種很心酸的感覺……

保護地球,從我們自己做起!
不問收獲,只問耕耘。

在我心中的夢田枯萎之前,就為培育夢苗努力發奮!
卜布
帖子: 256
注册时间: 31-08-09 周一 9:20 pm
来自: 处处无家处处家

前美国副总统 Al Gore 退出政坛,摇身一变为环保专家,且还是2007年诺贝尔和平奖的得主之一……

图片


SPEECH BY AL GORE ON THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE DECEMBER 10, 2007 OSLO, NORWAY
http://blog.algore.com/2007/12/nobel_pr ... peech.html
卜布
帖子: 256
注册时间: 31-08-09 周一 9:20 pm
来自: 处处无家处处家

第79届奥斯卡金像奖最佳纪录片:An Inconvenient Truth (2006)
这部纪录片由Davis Guggenheim执导、前美国副总统Al Gore主演。

图片


An Inconvenient Truth (2006)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Inconvenient_Truth
回复

回到 “自然环境”